So Arizona defied the odds by winning a third straight game.  At some point you need to wonder if they are a team of destiny (not density).  Everything is falling their way.  They beat a team that runs the ball well but not letting them run, they beat a different running team by getting so many interceptions that running was no longer an option and then beat the Eagles by giving up a 3 TD lead, then scoring again to win late.

The Steelers won exactly the way everyone thought they would, by holding the Ravens to 10 for 30 passings with multiple INTs and showing speed in every aspect of defense.

Which team do you choose?  The team that is catching every break or the team that is playing exactly the way that everyone knew they would play.  Given the choice of luck and skill I will always take skill.

The Steelers are an early TD favorite and I have to say I would lean towards giving it but since I would never encourage gambling I will simply say that I think the Steelers will win and the Cardinals will continue their 6 decade long franchise streak without a title.

No one expected Arizona to be here, or to win their first game, or to win last week, but the fact is that luck is fleeting while skill is reliable.  The Cardinals won in the first week from a couple of good breaks and won last week due to 5 interceptions by the other quarterback.  The Eagles, however, won by stopping the Giants on 4th down, converting long drives and using the clock.  I’ll take the Eagles on the road to win 24-14.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore play for the third time, Steelers winning the first two.  There is a myth that you cannot beat the same team 3 times in one season.  The Steelers can throw and run and the Ravens can really only run.  Both teams have speed that stops the run and pass and Ed Reed is better on defense than anyone Pittsburgh shows on offense.  Bottom line is that rookie QBs and rookie coaches don’t go to the Super Bowl.  Imagine the Steelers winning a cold game of defense and field possession 16-6.

Okay, so the Colts shot themselves in the foot and the Falcons came close.  I’m not taking the Colts game as a loss against me cos anyone with a functioning brain wouldn’t have done what they did – make that a draw and don’t count it.

This week’s games

Baltimore at Tennessee: Probably the best game of the weekend comes first.  Tennessee runs better than Miami, has a better QB than Miami and plays a heckuva (John Madden word) better defense than Miami.  The Ravens might get away with 9 for 23 passing against the Dolphins while running the ball 35 times but the Titans aren’t going to be that easy to run on, they pressure up the middle and they won’t throw four interceptions no matter how good Ed Reed is.  In a game of few touchdowns and fewer big plays, Titans 16-6

Arizona at Carolina.  The Cards are a bit of a fraud, went 9-7 in a bad division.  They are like the Chargers, only without a running game. The wheels come off now in a game that could get ugly.  Panthers have big play ability and as good as Arizona’s WRs are, they ain’t Steve Smith.  Carolina 35-20

Philadelphia at NY Giants.  Division foes never like to face off in the post-season. The Eagles lucked out playing a bad Viking team last weekend and that all changes now.  These teams split close games and if someone wins by more than one touchdown without a lucky late turnover TD I’ll be shocked. Give the home team who had an extra week off the edge – Giants 20, Eagles 17

San Diego at Pittsburgh.  Chargers didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs, didn’t deserve to win last week, but sometimes teams like that gain momentum for no reason.  Sproles has speed for the SD offense and they need it against the fast Steeler defense.  In the end I think the Chargers just won’t move the ball enough.  Close but no cigar – Steelers 27, Chargers 14.

Remember those ‘Choose your own adventure’ books when we were kids?  The book gives you a scenario and depending on your choice the story takes a different turn.  Here’s a scenario for you.

You have the ball on your own 10 yard line.  You are winning 17-14.  It’s 3rd down and 2 yards to go with 2:30 on the clock in the 4th quarter and the other team has no more timeouts.  Do you…

a- Run the ball up the middle, make the first down, run out the clock and advance

or

b- Run the ball up the middle,  fail to make the first down, run the clock to the 2 minutes warning and punt

?

Nope, if you are the Colts you choose option c, which is ‘Go to a 5 wide receiver set with a quarterback less mobile than continental drift so the other team knows it’s a passing play and then your QB snaps the ball before half the guys are ready and he gets blindsided on the one yard line by a blitz’.  Then the clock runs down to 2 minutes and you punt from deep in your own end.  And when you punt, make sure to let the other guy return is all the way into your territory so the other team only needs to make two first downs before kicking the tying field goal. After that, kick off and lose in overtime, great, good job, well done.

You must try to win the game in order to win it – it is not enough to simply try not to lose.  Indianapolis tried not to lose.  They didn’t have the guts to run up the middle on 3rd and 2 with the season on the line.  If you don’t have the faith in your team to go forward 6 feet with everything at stake – go play checkers or jack or something.

FIrst round picks….

Atlanta at Arizona.  The Cardinals haven’t won a home playoff game since…something like President Cleveland I think.  Arizona has a vet QB and 3 receivers who catch a lot and they can’t run the ball a lick.  The Falcons have a rookie QB, 1 receiver who catches a lot and the Falcons can run the ball very, very well.  I’ll take the Falcons to advance.

Indianapolis at San Diego.  The Chargers would not be in the playoffs were it not for an onside kick, bad opposition play and a Denver collapse so severe the coach got fired. I don’t care if the Chargers are at home or if they have an odd history of beating the Colts.  I’m taking Indy.

Philadelphia at Minnesota.  The Vikings won 10 games.  Really?  Man, how did they do that?  I have no idea.  Their QB was not the QB four weeks ago.  Philly has huge momentum and an attacking defense that feeds on QBs that panic and throw the ball up for grabs to avoid the sack.  I’ll take Philly 35-9.

Baltimore at Miami.  Ed Reed may be the best defensive back in the league.  Ray Lewis is still one of the best linebackers in the league.  The Ravens are actually starting to run the ball.  Miami has a lot of wins, but few of them came against a quality opponent.  I’ll take the Ravens to swarm and hold Miami to 150 yards offense and win 19-9.

Yes, you saw that: 4 road playoff winners.  I am not afraid to pick that.  I may be wrong but I’m not in doubt.

Not only did Denver fold like a house of cards in a tornado, but they ruined a perfectly good column.  I was all set to write about how they were the worst team to make the playoffs in…forever…and they blow it by getting blown out again.

Only the Lions and the Rams gave up more points than Denver did this year. Seriously, the Steelers gave up HALF as many points.  Now, instead of my great Bronco mocking column I must mock someone else.  To that point, here is the NFL’s bottom 5 for the year.

5. Detroit.  0-16. OO-16.  Ohhhh-16.  Ohmygoddoesthisteamsuckonalllevels-16. It’s not enough for the Lions to get the first pick of the draft - they buried the needle.  Too bad for them there is not one single clearly-defined number one college player to draft first. A couple of QBs, a couple of linemen… and the Lions need about 10 starters. Detroit should offer up the pick for as many as they can get, not just first rounders. With so many needs they should take a multitude of players, picks and cash and plug up the whole team.

4. Jets/Broncos/Cowboys.  3 teams that basically needed one win the final 3 weeks to get in and managed nothing at all.  The Jets started 8-3 and seemed a lock, then lost 4 out of 5.  Denver had a 3 game lead with 3 to go – the real bummer was the humiliating defeat to the Raiders at home.  And Dallas? They lost 3 of 4 when their end-of-season talent-heavy schedule came home to roost. 2-5 vs playoff teams. Simply put they just didn’t deserve it.

3. Officiating.  Some bad calls this year – and the inability to get a call right after you realize the mistake.

2. Coaching.  If the head coach doesn’t know how to manage the clock better then the legions of double-thumb-jointed kids in the Playstation Generation, you know you have a problem. Romeo Crennel makes Art Shell look like The Thinker.  The next time an NFL head coach has any idea when to run for a 2-pt conversion will be the first time they had an idea.

1. Bad teams in the playoffs.  I loooove the fact that New England goes 11-5 and sits while 8-7 Denver and 7-8 San Diego fight it out for a playoff spot.  I also loooove the fact that the teams with better records don’t get the home games. Honestly, can the NFL ever get that right?

NFL – we love you despite the fact you always seem to get so many things wrong.

First…I’m all for throwback jerseys – some are really cool.  But this year we have been subjected to two terrible ones.  Detroit’s logo-less silver helmet with plain blue jerseys.  Seriously, Mattel Intellivision had better graphics. The other bad one is Pittsburgh’s yellow-helmet look.  Not a good one. Steel City gets high marks for using a hypocycloid on the helmet – now keep the classic black jersey and be done with it.

dishonorable mention?  Houston Texans with Red jerseys on Red pants.  They looked like popsicles.

If the NFL playoffs began today…

AFC : Tennessee and Pittsburgh get the bye, Denver hosts Baltimore and Jets host Colts.  Denver loses, Jets win at home (cos they can run the ball and possess).  That leaves Tennessee hosting Baltimore in what will be the first 3-0 playoff final score in decades and the Steelers beat the Jets at home.  Then Tennessee beats Pittsburgh 9-6 and goes to the Super Bowl.

NFC: Giants and Carolina get the bye, Minnesota hosts Dallas, Arizona hosts Tampa.  If I were the Cardinals I’d be afraid of this game. If Dallas shows up, they win, I trust Arizona just enough to win.  Then the Giants beat Dallas at home, Carolina beats Arizona at home but holding the ball for 40 minutes of game time and the Giants go to a second straight Super Bowl.

Giants can pass some, run some, Tennessee passes none, runs a lot. Take the Titans 20-14.

The first problem with that scenario?  Half those teams might not make it.  Carolina hosts Denver, then travels to the #1 Giants and to #1 in Offense New Orleans.  There’s a 10% chance the Panthers don’t win another game.  That would mean the winner of this week’s Tampa-Atlanta game wins the division.  Take the Bucs defense to emerge.  The only thing that helps the Panthers is a Giants victory to clinch the #1 seed and maybe they rest the starters and Carolina wins a meaningless-to-the-home-team game 30-10.

2nd problem?  If Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh this week that leaves it open for any of Jets-New England-Miami that doesn’t win the AFC East to become a wild card. Working for the Ravens is those teams have divisional games and will knock each other off.  Working against? Ravens follow the Steelers game at Dallas in a game that Dallas needs.

My guess is the AFC East winner is the Jets and they take the high seed over Denver which helps both of them.  The Jets are more likely to beat a running team like Baltimore than they are likely to beat the Colts and Denver is more likely to beat the Colts than the Ravens. Take the home teams throughout; Tennessee still sits Super.

In the NFC I believe Carolina will beat Denver and the Giants may lose at Dallas which leaves a tie for the #1 seed and the Panthers seem to be rolling.  If the Panthers win at the Giants they get home field throughout and as they are unbeaten at home…The playoffs would perhaps be Cardinals over Bucs, Cowboys over Vikings – Panthers over Cowboys, Giants over Cardinals, Panthers win the rematch.

Super Bowl of previous losing teams Titans and Panthers – take Tennessee’s defense for their first ever Super Bowl triumph 26-20.

So, yeah, that’s who I am picking right now.  Ask me again in 24 hours.

One gambling website has the following current odds of winning the Super Bowl (as of the day before Thanksgiving)

NYGiants 3.5 to 1, Tenn 7 to 1, Indy 9 to 1, Dal and Pit 10 to 1, NYJ 11 to 1, NE 12 to 1, TB 19 to 1

Car 21 to 1, Bal and Ariz 23 to 1, Wash 29 to 1, Minnesota 34, Atl Chi SD & GB 41 to 1,

Mia and New Orl 51 to 1, Denver 67 to 1, Buf 81, Phi 151 to 1, Hou 251, Jax and Cle 501, SanFran 1001 to 1

Points of interest…Baltimore, arguably the best AFC team despite a rookie QB, is behind 5 AFC teams probably because they lost to 3 of those teams already.  However, no AFC defense is better right now, including Tennessee.

Denver?  Still trying to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  Denver will make the post-season at 8-8, host a playoff game and be a 7 point underdog in their own house.  Welcome to the NFL’s continued inability to rank teams based on quality instead opting to order said teams on the meritless variable of geography. The National Football League – taking parity to it’s ultimate extreme of refusing to reward quality teams with playoffs games at home no matter how many games they win!  Thanks NFL!

Who would I take now?  Giants against the field?  I wouldn’t go that far but I would take the Giants against the field to represent the NFC.  Against any AFC teams I’d make the Giants a 6 point Super Bowl favorite today.